Naturally I was a little apprehensive about this trip to South Africa. My old passport had no blank pages and despite several grovelling emails to the Department of Home Affairs in South Africa and the airport authority in Cape Town, I would have to get a new one before entering the country. I flew in from Vancouver on Sunday, less than 24 hours before my flight to Cape Town. My passport appointment was at 10am in Victoria, and my departing flight at 7pm the same evening, giving me little buffer time if anything went wrong. Thankfully, by 1pm I had my new passport in hand and headed to the airport.

Secondly, I have a whole bunch of tickets I’m trying to sell (28 tickets in fact, or about $11,000 worth at face-value!), whilst hoping that the tickets I’d bought on the internet for the England games would come through. Our cunning plan was to buy TST7s (i.e. guaranteed tickets to all the group games, knock-outs and the final itself) for North Korea, from FIFA directly. I mean, who buys tickets for North Korea? Surely whatever allocation FIFA had for them would go unfilled. And buying England tickets directly is near-on impossible. I’d actually had this idea for the 2006 world cup, but N. Korea didn’t qualify then. Well, it worked, and a little too well because both of our applications were successful, and so Steve and I now have 4 sets of tickets to every group game N. Korea have, including 4 tickets to the second round, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final itself! And when N. Korea get knocked out, the tickets will switch to following whoever wins their group, which should hopefully be Brazil. Yay. This should go some way to funding the trip. Incidentally, a BBC Radio Producer told me that he’d heard China had paid for 5,000 Chinese fans to fly out here, to support North Korea. I haven’t seen any yet.

Further apprehension came from the fact that the friend I’d planned this whole trip with, Stephen Hartley, received an internship offer from Bain Consulting, and so had to leave the day after(!) the USA match, leaving me on my own for about 4 weeks. I’m not the most organised, and this would force me to have to use my brain to work out where to go and where to stay. I haven’t been a ‘backpacker’ for the longest time, so I did what everyone backpacker does and bought the Lonely Planet guide as my saviour. So far, things have worked out.

I arrived in Cape Town, and instantly you can see how much it means to the locals. They are elated to be hosting fans from across the world, and have all been very hospitable. I heard my first vuvuzelas pretty promptly. Oh my god, vuvuzelas. In and of themselves, they aren’t annoying. When people randomly blow them during the day, directly at you, or in the middle of the night, they are hellish. I decided on the second day to perform a mind-trick and convince myself that they weren’t annoying (otherwise the World Cup would be unbearable). It sort of worked. I mean, the trick is, to get one yourself, and then they become surprisingly fun. Luckily at the England game there weren’t that many, but I now have ear-plugs anyway. I was indoors at Jo’burg airport when South Africa scored their first goal, and it was scarily loud. But I mean, it was fantastic to see all the singing and dancing. South Africans are passionate about their football.

This brings me to England. The England vs. USA match is the first England game I have ever been to. I was crazy excited. In fact, everyone was. I’d had a cameo appearance on Sky News and Norwegian TV earlier in the day, where I’d predicted a 3-1 victory. I’ve recorded videos of the fans before the match and you can just see how badly they wanted England to do well. Everyone was confident. There was lots of singing. Until the equaliser. It’s a little sad, but when the team actually needed support, my area of the crowd actually went quiet. A Mancunian behind me started laying into Jamie Carragher. One fan was cursing Emile Heskey (who I thought played well enough). There were shouts directed at ‘Fat Frank’ to pull his finger out, and at Lennon too. Oh and at Shaun Wright-Phillips (I confess, I did too, he’s rubbish, but don’t get me started on Peter Crouch, I’d rather play with 10 men than with Peter “I can’t head the ball” Crouch). At Old Trafford, the crowd never stops supporting Manchester United, imploring them to “attack, attack, attack” if ever we are losing. I felt that the players picked up on the crowd unsettling, and then their focus immediately shifted from trying to play well to worrying about what the fan/media backlash will be. Being in the stadium heightens the emotions you feel significantly, (both the joy and the despair), so much so that by the end, some of the English fans felt like they’d wasted their money coming out to support the team.

The interaction between the two sets of fans was mostly positive. Of course, the English are a lot more mean than the Americans, and when one guy a few rows back tried to get a “U-S-A, U-S-A” chant going, about 50 English fans turned around and serenaded him with “You’re sh*t, and you know you are, you’re sh*t, and you know you are”, which was actually quite funny. One England fan in front of me, who insisted on smoking even though the stadiums are non-smoking, tried to get a “You’re only speaking English cos of us, you’re only speaking English cos of us” chant going, which annoyed me (it’s a crap chant), and so I reminded him that we would be speaking German if it wasn’t for the Americans. He looked totally baffled. Until he came back with “they only came in at the 11th hour”, which is a rubbish rebuttal to my point anyway. Does this make me a bad England fan? Maybe, but I just can’t bring myself to trash talk Americans. They are so nice, and I like that so many have come out despite ‘soccer’ being their 6th sport or so. Germans, Italians or French, no problem.

I did meet one German fan on the street in Cape Town, who was incredibly, well, German. I asked him how he thought Germany would do. His response was, “we’ll win it or get to the final”, completely confidently, without a doubt in the world. I suggested that losing Ballack may have been a blow. “It doesn’t matter who plays, we are Germany, we always win”. I had no comeback to that. It was frustrating because it was true. I saw one Irish fan call a French fan “cheat, cheat, cheat” at one of the bars, and the French guy looked completely perplexed. I translated for him. His response was “but every country does that”, to which I responded “no they don’t”. Thierry Henry, what have you done? There is not a single neutral fan out here who wants France to do well, and inevitably any discussion of their team brings up the ‘cheat’ label almost reflexively.

I’m now in Johannesburg, staying with a friend who works for McKinsey Consulting, and am writing this from their office. The weather is warm, and the city seems lively (at least the places I have been to thus far). I’ll update on the touristy stuff I have done later (hiking Table Mountain, visiting the wineries). Suffice to say, this country is fantastic. It is such a shame that the British media have given such a negative portrayal of it. There is so much to see, a very interesting history, and a great people. I’m looking forward to going to Port Elizabeth, Durban, Kruger National Park and doing the Garden Route along the south. It’s not too expensive, cheaper than London. I hope more fans fly out for the knock-out stages, presuming England get there.

In-ger-land, In-ger-land, In-ger-land! We can still hope.


I have one spare ticket (Category 1, the best seats in the stadium) to England vs. Algeria on 18 June, in Cape Town, and one spare ticket to England vs. Slovenia, 23 June in Port Elizabeth, also Category 1 seats (and next to me, woohoo). This is because my best buddy Steve, decided that a summer internship with Bain Consulting would be more productive than spending a month in South Africa with me in perpetual despair/hope following the England team. I’ll pass these on for what I paid for them, which is $450/ticket. I’ve never been to South Africa before, but I hear Cape Town is a lot of fun, and of course I plan to go on safari and see the national parks as well.

In my infinite wisdom, I also bought tickets (TST7s for those in the know, which means it follows the group winner all the way to the final) to all of North Korea’s matches (i.e. vs. Brazil, Ivory Coast and Portugal), as a way of guaranteeing my tickets to England vs. Brazil in the semis and the final itself. Therefore, I have for sale 2 tickets to all of North Korea’s group games, and then match 54 and match 57, which should be Brazil’s 2nd round game and their quarter-finals, likely against Holland (presuming both finish top of their groups). If anybody is interested in those, I’ll sell them at whatever the secondary market says their value is. Please pass this on!


Next steps

26Oct09

Yikes. It’s been a while since I wrote on this blog. What’s worse is, I’ve mentally been writing lots for the blog in my mind over the past year. But I fell into the trap of wanting it to be something good, or worthwhile, which of course meant I never got around to publishing anything (I should have remembered this lesson, that good is the enemy of at all).

So, I am making a point of writing a pointless blog post, which should hopefully jolt me into writing something interesting in the near future.

I left Live Current Media a short-while ago (although I am still consulting for them). I just went to Startup School this weekend in San Francisco and got what I wanted, energy, inspiration and some knowledge. I am at that stage again where I’m trying to figure out what I want to do next. I have the chance to take some time to carefully think about what it is that will inspire me for the next 5-10 years (incidentally, I’m still trying to get around the fact that your horizon influences your goals so much. To date, I’ve been fairly short-termist, thinking in a maximum of 1-2 year blocks. But doing anything significant requires you to think in much bigger chunks of time, which I am not used to).

To that end, I’m currently reading Awaken the Giant within after I stumbled on this fantastic Ted talk, Why we do what we do (via Harjeet).


I’m pretty irritated.

Firstly, that there is no leadership emerging in the US take control and stem the panic that is spreading throughout the financial markets. When no one knows what’s going on, someone has to step up (and I don’t just mean reading from a tele-prompter, Bush) and provide some direction. We are seeing nothing. I guess it just reinforces that the current President is a big fat fail. The sad thing is, he’d have no credibility anyway.

Secondly, I’m irritated by this knee-jerk anti-bailout reaction (“$700bn to the fat cats!”). Check this diagram which I’m borrowing from the BBC:

Bail-out plan

It doesn’t help when the media sensationalises things. There is no $700bn going into some Wall Street bankers pockets. First off, $450bn of this bailout money is conditional.

Also, see that arrow pointing from the Banks to the Gov’t? That’s a stake in the banks being given to the taxpayers. So you’re not just losing money, you’re gaining an asset, and the chances are, at a very good price.

There’s a chance the US Gov’t could end up making a profit out of the situation when the housing market recovers, which it inevitably will. This credit bust is definitely a mess, but this doesn’t mean there won’t be any credit in the future. We need to think 5-10 years into the future. Things will recover, they always do.

The closest thing to this I’ve ever studied were the currency crises that happened in Asia in 1998 (indeed they were my savior in my final international economics exam). The big lesson I learned was that self-fulfilling prophecies can occur in the markets. If everyone loses faith in a currency, then it will crash, even if nothing has fundamentally changed.

The same thing can happen with banks. If we think some are going to fail, sell its shares, then we can help make it fail. So to counter-act that you need some pretty aggressive action, and even if it isn’t perfect, people are misunderstanding that doing nothing could be much, much worse (I mentioned that US Gov’t debt is not looking as secure as it once was – and that underpins everything in the current global economy).

If this credit problem is not solved and confidence restored, then it is easy for the effects to spill over to the main economy. The worst would be for otherwise healthy firms to stop receiving credit, be forced to lay people off in a downturn, add to unemployment, and then just make the whole macro condition worse for everyone. Credit plays a vital role in smoothing out consumption and investment cycles – so the banks that facilitate this and are otherwise healthy need to be backed up.

It turns out that the bill not passing may have been because of political fighting/posturing – not economic concerns. This is frankly infuriating:

“Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Mo., the whip, estimated that Pelosi’s speech changed the minds of a dozen Republicans who might otherwise have supported the plan.

Frank said that was a remarkable accusation by Republicans against Republicans: “Because somebody hurt their feelings, they decided to punish the country.”

I guess I’m incredibly lucky to have left banking, and moved to Canada. The funny thing is I actually interned on a credit structuring desk – the very people that created this mess.


Some time last year I remember stumbling over this video of US house prices (adjusted for inflation) since 1890 presented as a rollercoaster ride. Watch it, it brings out the extent of the recent boom very well.

This is the source data in a graph:

US House prices

Patrick points out that the y axis doesn’t start at zero, making things look worse than they are, but it’s an index starting at 100 (the baseline is emboldened), not zero.

Anyhow, here’s the ‘proper’ chart as Patrick mocked it together:

proper chart

Still pretty worrying.


I just got an email from my mum about her firm unexpectedly adjusting their pay to reflect increased inflation in the UK (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=19).

Inflation becomes threatening when expectations in the economy change significantly. The big oil shocks of the 70s triggered huge wage price spirals (prices rise, salaries rise, prices then rise, salaries rise more) and all of a sudden we have runaway inflation which screws with a lot of things in the economy (that’s my technical explanation! I shudder to think what my old Econ tutors at Oxford would think if they read this).

Anyway, there’s (anecdotal) evidence this is now happening. Not really good times, high inflation really messes with the efficiency of the overall economy.

Incidentally, the pay rise was below the RPI rate, so this was a tad cheeky, they just reduced everyone’s real wage. Time for mum to move to Canada.


I’ve been experimenting with a tumblog (?) because it was so damn easy to set up (and easy to use with the bookmarklet), to track the stuff I find interesting online.

So here it is: Kul’s tumblr.


IPL in the NYT

07May08

Cool article on the Indian Premier League in the NYT. Like the “billionaire vs. bollywood” bit. Can’t wait to go back out to Mumbai.


The Indian Premier League is killing it. Everyone had high hopes for the tournament, but there were many risks. It’s a first of its kind for cricket, and it was organised in just over six months, despite being a logistically bigger tournament than the cricket world cup. Added to that, India has never experienced city loyalty/rivalry before (the skeptics said Indian fans are too used to supporting only the national team), which makes the success to date all the more remarkable.

The reason for me being so bullish? Well, I have a lot of anecdotal evidence to the impact its having (it’s on all the Indian tv channels all the time at home), the games are all near sellouts despite it being in the first half of the tournament, the Facebook game is addictive and busy, and I just read this post by Adam Rabiner over on the Live Current blog.

To quote from the Economic Times:

“The ongoing Indian Premier League (IPL) matches have virtually taken the life out of cinema theatres and television programmes….

Star Plus sources said the fresh Television Audience Measurement (TAM) ratings are expected in a day or two. However, till April 22, the IPL dominated the TAM ratings.”

And, I also just had the photo editor from the WSJ contact me for photos, you may even hear about it in the US!

And hey, the IPL has its very own Moneyball-esque Oakland Athletics: The Rajasthan Royals.

Read here for Cricinfo‘s view.


mutual friends

13Apr08

An interesting look at (my) top friends by number of mutual facebook friends, courtesy of the fb app mutual friends.

Unsurprisingly, I share the most mutual friends on Facebook with Harjeet.



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